The Pre-War Build-Up
The 2022 energy crisis did not begin on 24 February. Natural gas prices in Europe had been rising since mid-2021 as post-COVID demand rebounded against constrained supply. By January 2022, the benchmark Dutch TTF gas price was already 10× its pre-pandemic level. IEA's World Energy Outlook 2022 documented that Russia had reduced gas exports to Europe through 2021 — whether deliberately to pressure EU energy policy or for commercial reasons remains contested — leaving European storage levels at multi-year lows heading into winter.
Oil had also been rising. OPEC+ production discipline, combined with under-investment during COVID, meant supply was trailing demand recovery. Brent was at ~USD 90/barrel before the invasion, up from USD 40 at the 2020 trough.
The Crude Spike: February–June 2022
Russia produced approximately 10–11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate — roughly 10% of global supply. The invasion triggered immediate market fears of supply disruption. Brent hit USD 127.98/barrel on 8 March 2022.
The pass-through to pump prices was rapid. According to EU weekly oil bulletin data, EU average petrol prices rose from €1.51/litre in January 2022 to €2.05/litre by June 2022 — a 36% increase in five months. In the UK, RAC Foundation pump price data shows UK petrol hitting 191.5p/litre in July 2022.
Diesel rose faster than petrol. Russia was a major exporter of middle distillates (diesel and heating oil) to Europe, and the sanctions disruption hit diesel supply harder than petrol. EU diesel prices peaked at €2.11/litre in June 2022, an unprecedented premium over petrol in markets where diesel had historically been cheaper. Our petrol vs diesel guide covers the normal pricing relationship and why it temporarily inverted.
Emergency Reserve Releases
In March–April 2022, the IEA coordinated a release of 60 million barrels from member-country strategic reserves — the third-ever coordinated IEA release. The US followed with its own historic release: 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between April and November 2022, the largest-ever drawdown. Full detail is in our article on the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The releases helped cap the crude spike but did not reverse it. Their primary effect was to slow the ascent and prevent a second spike when markets feared Russian supply would drop further. The IEA's emergency stock mechanism was designed for exactly this scenario.
The G7 Russian Oil Price Cap
Unable to impose a full embargo on Russian oil without triggering supply disruption, the G7, EU, and Australia introduced a novel instrument: a price cap. From 5 December 2022, Western shipping, insurance, and financial services — which dominate global maritime trade — could only be used to transport Russian crude if it was sold at or below USD 60/barrel (set by the US Treasury in coordination with the European Commission). Separate caps for Russian refined products (diesel: USD 100/barrel, fuel oil: USD 45/barrel) took effect in February 2023.
Russia's response was to redirect exports east. By 2023, China and India had become the dominant buyers of Russian crude at discounts of USD 15–25/barrel below Brent. Russia maintained export volumes close to pre-war levels but at lower per-barrel revenue. The Bruegel Institute tracks European energy import data in real time.
The Gas Crisis and Diesel Substitution
Europe's gas crisis added a second demand shock to the oil market. As Gazprom curtailed Nord Stream 1 deliveries and ultimately halted them entirely in September 2022, European utilities and heavy industry switched from gas to oil products — primarily heating oil and diesel — wherever possible. This "gas-to-oil switching" demand added an estimated 500,000–700,000 barrels per day to European middle distillate demand according to IEA Oil Market Reports from Q4 2022.
The combined effect — loss of Russian diesel supply AND increased industrial demand for diesel as a gas substitute — is why diesel prices rose more dramatically than petrol and why pump price differentials widened to unusual levels across Europe.
Government Responses: Cuts, Caps, and Rebates
European governments responded with a range of consumer interventions. According to Bruegel's tracker of national energy policies, EU member states committed over EUR 800 billion in consumer energy support between September 2021 and December 2023:
- Fuel duty cuts: Germany cut fuel excise by 35 cents/litre temporarily; France introduced a 18 c/litre rebate; Italy cut excise repeatedly.
- Price caps: Hungary capped petrol at HUF 480/litre (approximately €1.20) — one of the most aggressive interventions, creating queues and a black market. See our price cap glossary entry.
- VAT reductions: Several countries temporarily cut VAT on energy, reducing pump prices by 3–5 cents/litre. Our VAT on fuel entry covers the mechanics.
The fiscal cost was enormous — and the IMF subsequently argued that much of the support was poorly targeted, benefiting high-income households disproportionately. The IMF energy subsidies tracker documents the global picture.
Structural Changes: What Has Permanently Shifted
By 2024, the acute crisis had passed — Brent was trading in the USD 75–90 range, and European pump prices had fallen from their 2022 peaks. But several structural changes appear permanent:
- LNG infrastructure: Germany built five floating LNG terminals in under a year; the Netherlands, Italy, and Finland added capacity. Europe's LNG import capacity roughly doubled. IEA Gas Market Report Q1 2024 covers the new supply picture.
- Russian gas dependency ended: Russian pipeline gas fell from ~40% of EU supply pre-2022 to under 10% by 2024. The European Commission gas supply tracker shows current sources.
- Energy efficiency accelerated: EU gas demand fell ~15% in 2022–2023 through efficiency improvements, switching, and mild weather — faster than any pre-war efficiency programme had achieved.
- Carbon pricing strengthened: The EU ETS price, which had been modest before 2021, reached €85–100/tonne in 2023, adding roughly €0.20/litre to the carbon cost embedded in European petrol prices.
The baseline cost of energy in Europe is now structurally higher than pre-2021. European pump prices are unlikely to return to the €1.20–1.40/litre levels common in 2019–2020 without a major demand destruction event. Track current European pump prices in our fuel price explorer.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did fuel prices rise after the Russia–Ukraine invasion?
Brent crude peaked at USD 127/barrel in March 2022. EU average petrol rose ~36% to €2.05/litre by June 2022. UK petrol hit 191.5p/litre in July 2022 — an all-time record. See RAC Foundation pump price history and EU oil bulletin data.
Why did the war affect fuel prices so severely?
Russia supplied ~10% of global crude and was Europe's largest gas supplier. Sanctions removed supply and triggered gas-to-oil switching demand. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 and Bruegel Institute have published detailed analyses of the supply disruption mechanisms.
What was the G7 Russian oil price cap?
A USD 60/barrel ceiling imposed in December 2022. Western shipping and insurance services may only be used for Russian crude sold at or below the cap. Russia redirected exports to China and India at discounts. Details from US Treasury and European Commission.
Has the energy crisis permanently changed European fuel supply chains?
Yes. Europe built out LNG import capacity rapidly, diversified gas supply sources, and Russian pipeline gas fell from ~40% to under 10% of EU supply. The EU gas supply tracker and IEA gas market report detail the new landscape.