Where and when is COP31?

COP31 is the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC), scheduled for 9–20 November 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Turkey hosts as a major emerging economy with significant energy transition ambitions, including large solar and wind capacity additions and its candidacy for EU accession making European clean energy standards increasingly relevant. COP31 follows COP30 (Belém, Brazil, 2025), which was significant for launching the new 1.5°C-aligned NDC cycle and for progress on fossil fuel phase-out language.

What are the key agenda items for COP31 2026?

COP31 key agenda items include: assessment of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from 2025 submissions — the first round aligned with the 1.5°C pathway; implementation of the COP28 'transition away from fossil fuels' language; progress on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance; carbon market Article 6 implementation (especially Article 6.2 bilateral and 6.4 multilateral mechanisms); Loss and damage fund operationalisation; and adaptation finance for developing countries. Fuel subsidy reform is increasingly relevant to NDC credibility — countries that retain large fossil fuel subsidies face pressure to show accelerated phase-out timelines.

How does COP31 affect oil demand and fuel prices?

COP decisions affect oil demand and fuel prices through multiple channels: (1) EV adoption targets — more ambitious EV mandates reduce long-run petrol demand; (2) Fossil fuel subsidy reform commitments — countries pledging subsidy removal (as many did at COP28) accelerate the transition to market-priced fuels; (3) Carbon pricing ambition — countries implementing higher carbon taxes or expanding ETS coverage to transport fuels push pump prices higher; (4) Clean energy investment signals — COP pledges shape private investment in alternatives to fossil fuels, affecting long-run supply/demand balance. Near-term pump prices are not directly set by COP, but the 5–15 year demand trajectory is significantly influenced by the ambition level of COP outcomes.

COP31 2026 — Istanbul

Name: COP31 UN Climate Conference 2026
Start: 2026-11-09T09:00:00+02:00
End: 2026-11-20T18:00:00+02:00
Location: Istanbul Congress Centre

Published 1 September 2026 · Updated 19 October 2026

EventCOP31 — 31st UN Climate Change Conference

Dates9–20 November 2026

VenueIstanbul Congress Centre, Istanbul, Turkey

OrganiserUNFCCC Secretariat

Parties190+ UNFCCC member countries

COP31 is the annual UN Climate Change Conference (Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC), held in Istanbul for the first time. Hosted by Turkey — a nation bridging Europe and the Middle East, with significant fossil fuel use but rapidly expanding renewables — COP31 takes place against the backdrop of the first NDC cycle fully aligned with the 1.5°C pathway. The conference will assess whether countries' updated climate pledges are on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, and advance implementation of the landmark COP28 "transition away from fossil fuels" language.

For the energy transition background, see our energy transition glossary entry. For ETS and carbon pricing context, see our ETS carbon price entry and carbon tax entry. For COP30 context, see our COP30 Belém 2025.

COP31 key agenda themes

Agenda item	Status / key question
NDC assessment	Are 2025-submitted NDCs collectively aligned with 1.5°C? Global stocktake follow-up
Fossil fuel phase-out implementation	Translating COP28 "transition away" language into country-level commitments and timelines
Climate finance (NCQG)	Operationalising the post-2025 climate finance goal; developed country contributions
Article 6 carbon markets	Article 6.2 bilateral mechanisms; 6.4 Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism implementation
Loss and damage fund	Capitalisation and governance of the new Loss and Damage fund; first disbursements
Fossil fuel subsidy reform	Country reporting on subsidy phase-out progress; IMF/World Bank subsidy reform support
Just Transition	Coal transition financing; developing economy support for phasing out fossil fuels fairly

Fossil fuel phase-out: the COP28 legacy

COP28 (Dubai, 2023) marked the first time the UNFCCC process explicitly mentioned "fossil fuels" — language calling for a "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems" by 2050. COP31 is the first major COP where implementation of this language becomes a live accountability issue:

Major oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran) will face scrutiny of their NDC ambition vs their production plans
Major fossil fuel consumers (India, China, USA, EU) will report on coal, oil, and gas demand reduction progress
The IEA's tracking of COP28 pledges (triple renewables, double efficiency by 2030) provides an early scorecard

Fossil fuel subsidy reform at COP31

Fossil fuel subsidies are increasingly central to COP discussions because they directly undermine the energy transition:

Global fossil fuel subsidies (explicit + implicit/tax expenditure basis) exceeded $7 trillion in 2022 (IMF estimate) — primarily through suppressed fuel prices in oil-producing and developing nations
Countries with large fuel subsidies (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Indonesia) face COP pressure to show phase-out timelines
The IMF and World Bank support country-specific subsidy reform roadmaps, including social protection measures for vulnerable households

For country-specific subsidy reform analysis, see our Nigeria subsidy removal, Indonesia fuel subsidies, and Middle East subsidy reform. For the subsidy concept, see our fuel subsidy glossary entry.

What COP31 outcomes mean for fuel markets

COP and the 2030s oil demand trajectory
COP31's outcomes will signal whether the world is on a credible 1.5°C path — which, in the IEA's modelling, requires oil demand to peak by 2030 and fall rapidly thereafter. If COP31 produces strong NDCs with concrete EV mandates, carbon pricing commitments, and subsidy phase-out schedules, long-run oil demand expectations will shift downward — potentially reducing investment in new upstream capacity and setting up a supply-constrained market in the 2030s. If COP31 produces weak outcomes, the "high fossil demand" scenario becomes more likely, with higher long-run prices but also higher climate risk. For fuel price forecast context, see our petrol price forecast 2027.

Frequently asked questions

Where and when is COP31? COP31 takes place 9–20 November 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Turkey hosts as a nation bridging Europe and the Middle East, with significant renewables expansion and EU accession candidacy. COP31 follows COP30 (Belém, Brazil, 2025) and is the first COP to assess NDCs submitted under the new 1.5°C-aligned cycle.: COP31 takes place 9–20 November 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Turkey hosts as a nation bridging Europe and the Middle East, with significant renewables expansion and EU accession candidacy. COP31 follows COP30 (Belém, Brazil, 2025) and is the first COP to assess NDCs submitted under the new 1.5°C-aligned cycle.
What are the key agenda items for COP31 2026? Key COP31 agenda: assessing whether 2025 NDCs are on a 1.5°C path; implementing COP28 "transition away from fossil fuels" language; climate finance (NCQG); Article 6 carbon market implementation; Loss and Damage fund operationalisation; fossil fuel subsidy phase-out progress; and just transition support for fossil-fuel-dependent developing economies.: Key COP31 agenda: assessing whether 2025 NDCs are on a 1.5°C path; implementing COP28 "transition away from fossil fuels" language; climate finance (NCQG); Article 6 carbon market implementation; Loss and Damage fund operationalisation; fossil fuel subsidy phase-out progress; and just transition support for fossil-fuel-dependent developing economies.
How does COP31 affect oil demand and fuel prices? COP decisions shape long-run fuel demand through EV mandates, carbon pricing, and subsidy reform commitments. Near-term pump prices are not directly set by COP. Over a 5–15 year horizon, strong COP outcomes (ambitious NDCs, subsidy phase-outs, carbon pricing expansion) reduce oil demand growth — eventually weighing on long-run crude prices. Weak outcomes support higher long-run demand and prices.: COP decisions shape long-run fuel demand through EV mandates, carbon pricing, and subsidy reform commitments. Near-term pump prices are not directly set by COP. Over a 5–15 year horizon, strong COP outcomes (ambitious NDCs, subsidy phase-outs, carbon pricing expansion) reduce oil demand growth — eventually weighing on long-run crude prices. Weak outcomes support higher long-run demand and prices.